Saturday, August 23, 2008

2008 - The Birdseye Approach

OK, it has been a long time since I have had something to say but I am finally getting around to my thoughts, which is annually prompted by the advent of yet another new year. Actually, I always have a lot to say but the gift of putting pen to paper inspires habitual laziness in me. Sometimes I wonder how I ever obtained a four year degree with my 20 word a minute typing ability but I persevered much like DiceK does after walking the based loaded but yielding limited damage.

But on to the season and the predictions. I have to state that I am no longer an expert. I feel like I have a limited grasp of the intricacies of all the teams this year. Then why read on you say? Because I still am in the upper echelon of pundits above the Mason-Dixon line and I will probably provide my audience with plenty of fodder for jests and barbs throughout the fall.

My initial approach this year is an examination of the AP Top 25. I will review each team and then add my surprise teams for this year that have not been included in the preliminary AP poll. My premise is what do I think of each team without incessant studying of college football magazines? What is my impression of each team that is leftover from the prior year? That is how I am going to determine my initial national champion and subsequent rankings.

1. Georgia (22) 0-0 1,528

Moreno, Stafford and a bunch of Dawgs jumping on the field after scoring a touchdown against Florida which fueled a Sugar Bowl win against overmatched Hawaii. Lost in the shuffle was that they did not win the SEC or the SEC East for that matter. They survived a couple of early season losses to roll down the stretch and with well known skill position players returning from a successful squad they were an easy choice for a top ranking.

I just don’t see it however. For starters, they have to go to LSU before they play the Gators. I see a loss in one of those two games. With Auburn, Tennessee and a trip to Arizona St. also on the schedule that is quite a bit to come though unscathed and unblemished.

Now, of course, multiple loss SEC teams are starting to make a habit of winning national titles but it will not be this squad and it will not be this year. I predict at least two losses for this squad but I do foresee a New Year’s deal bowl against the Big 10

2. Ohio State (21) 0-0 1,506

If there is one team NO ONE outside of Ohio wants to see in the title game it is the Buckeyes. Unfortunately, there is little to get in their way in the Big 10. The whole season boils down to USC. I say they take it. Their defense is stacked, Wells is a stud and they have to win a big game at some point don’t they? I actually can’t think of any receivers on their squad, but I will overlook that for the moment. Ohio St. beats USC and is my choice to lose in the BCS title game once again.

3. USC (12) 0-0 1,490

The problem with USC is that I just don’t think they have enough experience. They are reliant on Mark Sanchez who is just starting to figure out his game. I know Joe McKnight is a stud and Vidal Hazelton is back but I frankly just do not feel it with this team, at least right out of the gate. I think they will run into issues early while they forge an identity, at least on offense. The defense will be strong but I think a key Ohio St. defensive play catapults the Buckeyes to the early victory in this highly anticipated matchup. I also think a Pac 10 loss is in their future. No better than 2 losses for this squad.

4. Oklahoma (4) 0-0 1,444

Every year, its how good Oklahoma is and every year they seem not to live up to expectations. What’s the truth? I don’t know. I think they will be there once again but will falter at some point. I can’t back a team that seemed to give up while getting trounced by West Virginia last year. Will an internal leader emerge? Until I see a Josh Heupel clone I am not picking this team to make a run for the title. Only one loss though

5. Florida (6) 0-0 1,415

Tebow. Tebow. Tebow. He is supposed to have a running game this year too. They have LSU at home and no Auburn or Alabama. I say they hold serve at home and beat Georgia. I think their key game this season is at Tennessee in the 3rd week. They may lose that but will rebound nicely. I see Florida as the SEC champ and finishing in 3rd place in the BCS standings.

6. Missouri 0-0 1,266

Why is Florida 3rd? Behold your national champion, the Missouri Tigers. When I think about this team I think offense. I think Chase Daniel and the bevy of talent in that offense. Chase knows that system and is a winner. And most importantly, they don’t play Oklahoma. Their toughest game could be this Saturday against Illinois but without Mendenhall, Mizzou rolls and the Show Me State can continue to forget about the sad state of their basketball team.

7.LSU 0-0 1,135

A Harvard transfer as your starting QB? Good luck duplicating Matt Flynn. LSU will be tough but how many successful game managers can you ask for?

8. West Virginia 0-0 1,116

No Steve Slaton means too much pressure on Pat White. Noel Devine can’t handle the load. The Mountaineers will need a lot of some running back I have never heard of to remain in the Top 10.

9. Clemson 0-0 1,105

Right....

10. Auburn 0-0 968

I don’t know anything about them. Tommy Tuberville is still the coach I presume and they haven’t been on the national radar for a while so yea sure this seems to fit the mold of the SEC surprise team.

11. Texas 0-0 966

Gimme a break. Has Colt McCoy picked his ass off the ground yet? Didn’t Jamal Charles leave? Limas Sweed is gone, not that he was much of a factor, so there isn’t the possibility of a known stud receiver. Let me look at the schedule. Oklahoma, Missouri and Texas Tech. Definitely two losses there. At least they don’t get to be waxed by Kansas St. this year so they have that going for them. No better than four losses.

12. Texas Tech 0-0 786

I know that this team is everyone’s darling. They will probably lose to Oklahoma and to someone else so they won’t make the Big 12 title game but they will go back to a New Year’s Day bowl with a successful season

13. Wisconsin 0-0 771

Does it really matter? They will lose to Ohio St., lose a couple of other times, look average all year but Cheeseheads travel and they will go to a New Year’s day bowl at 11AM and hold their own. I will wake up on New Year’s day bowl and have a mermosa to celebrate this shoo-in.

14. Kansas 0-0 707

Eegh.. 2 years in a row? Doubtful. Good luck to you though. 5 losses.

15. Arizona State 0-0 631

Again, a team that always finds a way to shoot themselves in the foot. They may even beat Georgia but then Arizona will beat them by 20.

16. Brigham Young 0-0 590

Yes, Yes, yes. These guys are due. Move em up!

17. Virginia Tech 0-0 578

Lets see. They lost their one good running back and still have not decided on a quarterback. Their D will carry them as usual and they will have improved enough to beat Wake in the ACC title game by year’s end. Then, they can go chalk up another BCS loss for the ACC. Come on Noles and Canes. Win again already.

18. Tennessee 0-0 509

They came from this position when Tee (or is it T) was at the helm. I will bet a round on Tee. I think they finish in Top 25 but lose to Florida and wind up in a New Year’s Day bowl.

19. South Florida 0-0 496

Hey, South Florida, nice to see you. At least you don’t have to play Dennis Dixon and the Ducks again this year. That must be nice. You get to cruise all year before losing by 50 to a good team right?

Oh wait, you lost to an Oregon 3rd string QB by 50 and are ranked ahead of the Ducks. Makes sense to me.

20. Illinois 0-0 483

I feel sustained improvement and another trip to the Rose Bowl or at least in that race till the end with the Spartans. What happened to Hall of Fame head coach Kirk Ferentz and Iowa by the way?

21. Oregon 0-0 366

No reason to quibble with this pick. Could be worse, could be better. They will be fine.

22. Penn State 0-0 293

Definitely missing something here. No idea.

23. Wake Forest 0-0 227

Wake will win the Atlantic division despite getting hammered by Clemson.

24. Alabama 0-0 89

I can’t get past losing to Louisiana Monroe at the moment or whatever school it was where I can’t name one player in ALL-TIME

25. Pittsburgh 0-0 85

Oh, stupid me. Wannstadt is finally turning around a program in his 15th year after inheriting a team that went to the Fiesta Bowl. Or am I a year off? LeSean Mccoy is special. He better display it. 3 losses. Top 25.

The Dawg’s Top 10

1)Missouri

2)Ohio St.

3)Florida

4)Oklahoma

5)Georgia

6)BYU

7)Auburn

8)USC

9)LSU

10)Texas Tech

Frankly, I am feeling pretty uninspired by my Top 10 but as I scan the list of other teams, I can’t say that I have any confidence in them.

Now, who do I like as my surprise teams? Surprise currently being defined as not being in the Top 25. I have limited this list to 5 or else I could say ‘watch out for these guys’ all day.

a)Michigan St. – They seemed real tough last year and would have beat BC if they had a QB.

b)Arizona – Willie Tuitama receives his doctorate and the Cats win 8 games.

c)Mississippi – Houston Nutt is in town and everyone loves whats in the cupboard for him.

d)Florida St. – Now if Drew Weatherford can consistently play like as if he is playing BC then my ACC picks can be thrown out.

e)Kansas St. – Even if Texas is on a downturn, giving those guys good lickings the past two years means something is about to shake out there right?

posted by oceanjay @ 3:50 PM 0 comments